JPMorgan says India’s inclusion in global bond index may lure $25 bn inflows

India’s inclusion in JPMorgan’s global emerging-market bond index could prompt $25 billion of inflows from foreign investors, the bank said in a research report.

Actual inclusion will depend on domestic and international developments, Arthur Luk, a JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategist, wrote in a note. Given India’s large weight in the index, the process would likely be staggered over 10 months, similar to China’s inclusion into GBI-EM in 2020, Luk said.

Earlier this month, the U.S. bank’s index team said that Indian government bonds were on track to be placed on index watch for inclusion. The ability to access the market through an international central security depository such as Euroclear, and clarity on taxes were among key hurdles cited by investors.

The eligible bonds under the so-called Fully Accessible Route, or FAR, which are free of any restrictions, will be large enough for a maximum 10% weight in the Government Bond Index – Emerging Markets Global Diversified that is followed by about $250 billion of assets under management, Luk wrote.

Here are estimates of foreign inflows into Indian bonds on potential inclusion in global indexes:

HouseInflow Estimates
Goldman Sachs$35-$40 billion
HSBC$30-$40 billion
Morgan Stanley$40 billion