Strong rebound after October slowdown signals resilience in India’s external trade, aided by global demand revival, policy support, and sectoral diversification
NEW DELHI (Economy India): India’s external trade showed a strong rebound in November, with merchandise exports rising 19.37% year-on-year to $38.13 billion, while imports declined 1.88% to $62.66 billion, according to data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry on Monday.
The performance marks a decisive recovery from October, when exports had weakened amid global uncertainty, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical tensions. Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal said the November export surge had fully compensated for October’s losses, reinforcing confidence in India’s export competitiveness.
This resurgence comes at a time when the global economy remains fragile, with high interest rates in developed markets, slowing growth in China, and persistent geopolitical risks. Against this backdrop, India’s trade numbers underscore resilience, diversification, and policy-driven strength.
Key Trade Numbers at a Glance
Data Box: India’s Trade Performance – November
| Indicator | November 2025 |
|---|---|
| Merchandise Exports | $38.13 billion |
| Export Growth (YoY) | +19.37% |
| Merchandise Imports | $62.66 billion |
| Import Growth (YoY) | –1.88% |
| Trade Deficit | $24.53 billion |
What Drove the Export Surge? Sectoral and Structural Factors
1. Engineering Goods and Manufacturing Push
Engineering exports continued to be a key driver, benefiting from:
- Infrastructure demand in West Asia and Africa
- Capital goods exports to Latin America
- Stable orders from Europe despite economic slowdown
The PLI (Production-Linked Incentive) schemes in electronics, machinery, and auto components have begun delivering tangible export outcomes.
2. Petroleum Products and Refinery Exports
Refined petroleum exports saw a recovery, aided by:
- Stable crude prices
- Higher refining margins
- Demand from Asia-Pacific and Africa
India’s ability to import discounted crude and export refined fuels remains a structural advantage in global energy trade.
3. Pharmaceuticals and Chemicals
India’s pharma exports benefited from:
- Restocking by global buyers
- Strong demand for generics in the US and Africa
- Increased exports of specialty chemicals
This segment continues to reinforce India’s reputation as a reliable supplier in global healthcare supply chains.
4. Electronics and Mobile Manufacturing
Electronics exports, particularly smartphones, continued their upward trajectory, driven by:
- Apple-led supply chain diversification
- Manufacturing scale-up in India
- Improved logistics and export facilitation
This aligns with India’s ambition to become a global electronics manufacturing hub.
Why Imports Fell: Demand Moderation and Commodity Prices
The decline in imports reflects a combination of economic and price-related factors:
1. Lower Commodity Prices
- Reduced coal and crude oil prices
- Lower fertilizer imports due to domestic production support
2. Weak Gold Imports
Gold imports moderated as:
- High domestic prices curbed demand
- Festive-season stocking ended earlier
3. Demand Normalisation
Moderation in non-essential imports indicates:
- Consumption stabilisation
- Greater focus on domestic sourcing
Trade Deficit: A Manageable Gap
Despite strong export growth, India’s trade deficit stood at $24.53 billion, which economists consider manageable and non-alarming, given:
- Strong services exports surplus
- Robust remittance inflows
- Stable foreign exchange reserves
India’s current account balance is expected to remain within sustainable limits in FY26.
Expert Analysis: What the Data Signals
Rajesh Agrawal, Commerce Secretary
“November exports have more than compensated for the October dip. The trend shows resilience and competitiveness across sectors.”
Economists’ View
- Export growth reflects structural improvements, not just cyclical recovery
- India’s diversified export basket is cushioning global volatility
- Policy continuity remains crucial for sustaining momentum
Global Context: India vs the World
While many economies face:
- Export contraction
- Weak global demand
- Currency volatility
India stands out due to:
- Stable macro fundamentals
- Large domestic market backing manufacturing
- Strategic trade agreements
India’s exports are increasingly less dependent on a single geography, reducing vulnerability.
Role of Trade Policy and FTAs
India’s recent and ongoing Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with:
- UAE
- Australia
- Ongoing talks with UK, EU, and GCC
are expanding market access and reducing tariff barriers, especially for:
- Textiles
- Leather
- Food processing
- Engineering goods
Services Exports: The Invisible Strength
Though November data focuses on merchandise trade, India’s services exports continue to:
- Offset merchandise trade deficit
- Deliver strong net foreign exchange earnings
IT, business services, and digital exports remain a backbone of India’s external sector.
Currency Impact: Rupee Stability Supports Trade
Despite global volatility, the rupee has remained relatively stable, helping exporters:
- Price competitively
- Manage input costs
- Hedge currency risk effectively
Challenges Ahead
Despite positive numbers, risks remain:
- Slower growth in developed markets
- Geopolitical disruptions in shipping routes
- Protectionist tendencies in global trade
Exporters will need continued policy support, faster refunds, and logistics efficiency.
Government’s Forward Strategy
The Commerce Ministry is focusing on:
- Export promotion councils
- Districts as Export Hubs initiative
- Logistics cost reduction
- Trade finance accessibility for MSMEs
These measures aim to sustain export growth momentum through FY26 and beyond.
What to Expect in Coming Months
December and Q4 performance will hinge on:
- US Federal Reserve policy signals
- Global demand during holiday season
- Commodity price movements
If current trends continue, FY26 exports could outperform earlier projections.
A Strong Signal of Economic Resilience
India’s 19.37% export growth in November, coupled with a decline in imports, highlights the country’s growing strength as a global trading economy. The data reinforces confidence in India’s manufacturing push, export diversification, and policy-driven competitiveness.
As global uncertainties persist, India’s ability to rebound strongly from short-term slowdowns reflects structural resilience rather than temporary relief—a critical marker for long-term economic stability.
(Economy India)
