MUMBAI (Economy India): On September 24, 2024, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) convened a meeting in Mumbai with forecasters and economists to discuss projections for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI). The event featured prominent figures including Secretary of Economic Affairs, Mr. Ajay Seth, Chief Economic Advisor, Dr. V. Ananth Nageswaran, and other notable economists.
Key Participants and Organizations
The meeting witnessed participation from over 50 economists and forecasters representing various institutions. Notable participants included:
- Indian Reserve Bank (RBI)
- Citibank
- ICICI Prudential AMC
- Bloomberg Economics
- Morgan Stanley
- Nomura
These organizations contributed to an extensive dialogue on India’s macroeconomic indicators.
Program Highlights
The program was initiated by Dr. Saurabh Garg, Secretary at MoSPI, who outlined various macroeconomic indicators released by the ministry. He provided insights into preliminary revisions for GDP, CPI, and Index of Industrial Production (IIP). Dr. Garg also introduced the recently launched e-statistics portal for easy access to time-series data.
- Capex Survey Launch: The ministry is planning to launch a web-based Capex survey to gather comprehensive information on private sector investments.
Presentations and Discussions
The meeting included detailed presentations on GDP and CPI base revision exercises and existing processes. Dr. V. Ananth Nageswaran praised the ministry’s Capex survey initiative. Mr. Nilesh Shah from the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) suggested improving data accuracy and reducing delays in data releases.
- Data Availability: Mr. Ajay Seth emphasized the importance of timely and consistent data availability for better clarity in investment, trade, and policy decisions. He advocated for advanced technologies to enhance data governance.
Open Forum Discussions
An open forum discussion followed, allowing participants to engage actively. The discussions yielded several key suggestions:
- Continuous Domestic Consumption Surveys: Regular surveys to ensure ongoing base revisions of the CPI and other macroeconomic indicators.
- GDP Observations: Special focus on urban/rural and district-level GDP observations.
- Addressing Inequality in GDP Estimates: Employing two methods to reduce disparities in GDP estimates.
- Improved Availability of Services in CPI: Working towards better inclusion of services in the revised CPI series.
- Core Inflation Compilation: Investigating further into the compilation of core inflation for clearer understanding.
- Timeliness in GDP Data Releases: Reducing the time taken to release GDP data to allow users ample time for analysis.
- CPI Structure: Ensuring the exclusion of worker-provided spaces to maintain data integrity.
- Housing Index Compilation: Reevaluating the process for compiling the housing index.
Participants appreciated the ministry’s initiative in organizing this dialogue, highlighting the clarity and understanding it fostered among users. They suggested the ministry conduct similar programs in the future.
The discussions held on September 24 reflect a proactive approach by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation to engage with economists and forecasters. The outcomes of this meeting will potentially enhance the accuracy and timeliness of macroeconomic data in India, contributing to better economic planning and policy formulation.
(Economy India)
Soures (PIB)
